I’d normally start a post like this quoting someone talking or writing about the rumored Apple AR/VR/XR headset, but there are just too many (and very divergent) sources to pick from. Suffice it to say, there are a lot of opinions on what Apple might announce very soon—some of them more popular than others. I think the discussion is missing a point though. Let me explain.

To keep this simple, let’s call the headset “Apple Goggles” for the time being. It is a name Apple is unlikely to use, but it’s funny.

On an aside: What if Apple is actually using the rumor mill to test the waters and learn what ideas and price points people might like? It wouldn’t be the stupidest idea to get some market insights. At the same time, Apple could seed some astronomically high prices, which it could undercut when releasing the headset. This would make the Apple Goggles appear less expensive to Apple enthusiasts—helping Apple sell their goggles to early adopters more easily.

Why should anybody buy one?

A solution in search of a problem will almost always fail. The Apple Watch was meant to be a fashion accessory. When it launched, the iPhone had to be its brain and do most of the computing. The watch was, in many ways, an external display for the phone. Over time it became an excellent fitness tracker and opened up new markets like Apple Fitness+. Its existence as a fashion statement is limited these days. Gone are the USD 15,000 models made out of solid gold.

To boost the iPad when it was launched, it was given the ability to run iPhone apps in their original size with a giant black bezel around them. Certainly not something Apple did because they liked how it looked or felt to use those apps, but it meant the iPad launched in April 2010 with just under 200,000 compatible third-party apps—instead of zero.

The Apple Goggles will fail if people don’t know what to use them for, obviously, but worth reminding ourselves. And Apple is smart enough to know that it will have a limited say in what these goggles are good for. Developers and users will take the wheel soon enough and start developing apps Apple never dreamt of—and that‘s how it should be.

A completely new device, form factor, interaction model, and UI don’t just appear out of nowhere. The ecosystem for such a new frontier has yet to be built. Some building blocks for realityOS have been steadily appearing in iOS and iPadOS; even Safari started adding support for 3D models in August 2021.^[1] Apple will need a store to sell realityOS apps in. And to build this store, since Apple’s stores often use WebViews, WebKit needs to support 3D models. Models representing scenes, objects, you name it. Apple will also need apps and experiences to sell, and not all of those will be built by Apple. In fact, I’d bet that most will eventually be third-party.

I think Apple will reveal realityOS at WWDC 2023, but it won’t start selling a headset to consumers this year. In my opinion, the rumored Apple Goggles to be revealed in 2023 will likely be hardware aimed at developers. Like the A14 Mac mini, which allowed developers to develop apps for and on Apple Silicon before M1 was released, I think Apple will sell a developer kit for the Apple Goggles this year. Developers will be able to use release candidate realityOS versions on developer hardware this year. And maybe, just maybe, Apple will start selling goggles for Christmas.

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